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KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
78%
WN2
75%
EPS
74%
HRES
71%
ICON
45%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 61.6¢Risks 61.55u
VS
ICONNO 38.4¢Risks 38.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.45u · ICON −38.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:0078.3%74.3%75.4%71.2%44.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0078.3%74.3%75.4%71.2%44.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0078.3%74.3%75.4%71.2%44.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0078.3%74.3%75.4%71.2%44.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single78%85.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%84.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%82.2°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%84.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON45%79.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗