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KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
78%
WN2
75%
EPS
74%
HRES
71%
ICON
45%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 61.6¢Risks 61.60u
VS
ICONNO 38.4¢Risks 38.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.40u · ICON −38.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 70.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.7%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0012.8%———16.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0086.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0077.6%———61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0070.3%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0072.6%———58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0068.0%———50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0069.8%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0047.3%———51.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0064.1%———50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0048.4%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0035.4%———51.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0057.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0046.3%———43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0040.5%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0043.6%———46.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0051.6%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0058.2%———39.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0040.6%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0035.6%———33.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0041.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0047.6%—62.1%—30.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0047.6%—74.0%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0043.4%———38.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0045.7%—22.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0034.1%—70.4%—31.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0041.8%—62.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0036.0%—76.4%—37.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0044.0%—79.2%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0053.4%15.9%74.6%68.8%43.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0039.1%—48.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single78%85.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%84.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%82.2°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%84.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON45%79.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗