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KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
22%
HRES
20%
ICON
15%
WN2
14%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 10.9¢Risks 10.90u
VS
EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.10u · EPS −89.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:0021.7%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0021.7%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0021.7%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0021.7%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:0021.6%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:0021.6%0.2%14.0%20.1%15.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single22%85.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%84.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON15%79.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%84.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%82.2°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗