KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

20%

15%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.9¢Risks 10.90u

EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.10u · EPS −89.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	15.5%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	24.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	18.9%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	22.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	19.4%	15.1%	4.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	5.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	85.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	84.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	79.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.2°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗