KMEM / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≤ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

24%

19%

16%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.0¢Risks 13.95u

EPSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.05u · EPS −86.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	40.1%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	21.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	5.6%	23.3%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	36.9%	38.9%	3.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	55.8%	1.5%	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	16.4%	49.2%	6.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	11.9%	15.4%	34.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	75.7%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	2.2%	13.4%	20.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	12.8%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	9.4%	9.4%	50.0%	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	5.7%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	8.3%	6.3%	43.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	10.0%	5.9%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	17.7%	9.0%	53.9%	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	11.9%	7.6%	—	—	94.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	23.5%	7.1%	45.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	29.8%	10.1%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	26.4%	16.9%	65.9%	90.1%	35.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	24.9%	11.8%	99.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	21.5%	14.0%	63.7%	—	33.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	20.8%	17.5%	59.5%	—	96.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	15.1%	16.6%	51.2%	59.9%	33.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	14.3%	16.6%	55.1%	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	12.0%	14.9%	51.3%	48.7%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	13.2%	12.4%	44.4%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	13.8%	7.8%	42.8%	26.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	14.4%	6.5%	42.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	20.3%	6.1%	54.7%	26.3%	56.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	10.7%	9.9%	32.4%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	41%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
ICON	27%	65.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0713
National Blend	25%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	24%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0552
IFS HRES	19%	66.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0353
AIFS Single	16%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0262
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261017-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Memphis stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗