KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

76%

76%

72%

56%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.8¢Risks 75.85u

WN2NO 24.2¢Risks 24.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.15u · WN2 −24.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:02+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	62.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	62.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	68.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	68.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	68.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	82.6%	93.5%	68.6%	76.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	68.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	68.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	68.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	68.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	72.9%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	69.2%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	69.2%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	69.2%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	69.2%	93.5%	59.6%	68.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	72.8%	95.7%	52.4%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	72.8%	95.8%	52.4%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	72.8%	95.8%	52.4%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	72.8%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.8%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	72.8%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	66.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	76.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	76.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	76.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	54.7%	80.9%	76.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	54.7%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	74.4%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	75.8%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	75.8%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	75.8%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	75.8%	95.8%	55.9%	72.0%	76.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	75.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗