KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

76%

76%

72%

56%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.8¢Risks 75.85u

WN2NO 24.2¢Risks 24.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.15u · WN2 −24.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	37.8%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	21.8%	93.0%	—	—	84.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	83.8%	43.0%	25.7%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	91.0%	83.5%	47.8%	—	80.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	90.0%	56.1%	62.0%	—	71.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	94.5%	39.0%	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	5.8%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	63.9%	88.4%	21.3%	—	48.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	32.6%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	63.7%	84.4%	24.8%	—	62.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	50.0%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	64.4%	68.6%	20.9%	—	64.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	67.4%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	59.6%	73.7%	25.5%	—	64.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	69.2%	64.7%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	70.6%	73.2%	15.7%	—	64.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	73.0%	77.2%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	65.9%	80.2%	21.3%	0.0%	60.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	67.5%	78.6%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	68.0%	81.7%	19.9%	52.3%	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	72.7%	81.7%	18.3%	—	54.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	70.2%	83.4%	21.7%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	73.1%	84.2%	25.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	71.6%	86.6%	25.1%	46.0%	34.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	76.8%	86.1%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	82.8%	89.8%	41.4%	68.2%	68.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	82.8%	92.0%	33.8%	—	39.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	76.2%	90.4%	30.3%	56.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	84.0%	80.8%	43.4%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0018
ICON	76%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0576
AIFS Single	76%	75.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0586
IFS HRES	72%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0784
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1354
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗