KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

38%

33%

33%

24%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

WN2NO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.00u · WN2 −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	42.5%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	77.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	34.7%	59.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:44+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	34.7%	32.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	43.6%	33.1%	24.1%	32.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	43.6%	33.1%	24.1%	32.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	43.6%	33.1%	24.1%	32.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	38.1%	33.1%	24.1%	32.6%	60.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	38.1%	33.1%	24.0%	32.6%	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	79.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3600
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	38%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1452
IFS Ensemble	33%	76.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1096
IFS HRES	33%	74.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1063
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1056
WeatherNext 2	24%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0576

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗