KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

38%

33%

33%

24%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

WN2NO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.00u · WN2 −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	13.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	5.2%	73.5%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	54.2%	14.5%	6.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	66.3%	52.2%	16.5%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	62.7%	21.1%	25.8%	—	34.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	41.3%	72.6%	10.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	0.5%	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	24.5%	55.8%	3.3%	—	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	6.4%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	22.8%	46.5%	3.8%	—	22.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	13.0%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	21.6%	25.1%	2.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	23.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	16.5%	27.9%	3.0%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	22.6%	19.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	22.7%	25.1%	1.1%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	23.6%	27.9%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	16.9%	30.1%	1.5%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	16.8%	26.7%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	16.0%	28.9%	1.1%	8.1%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	18.3%	27.3%	0.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.1%	27.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	15.8%	26.9%	1.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	13.4%	28.4%	0.9%	3.7%	1.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	15.6%	25.3%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	19.1%	29.3%	2.1%	8.9%	8.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	17.2%	31.1%	1.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	10.2%	25.0%	0.6%	3.4%	0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	11.5%	1.3%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	79.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3600
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	38%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1452
IFS Ensemble	33%	76.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1096
IFS HRES	33%	74.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1063
National Blend	32%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1056
WeatherNext 2	24%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0576

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗