KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	65.9%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	24.6%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	7.5%	26.5%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	59.1%	1.4%	3.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	33.7%	39.2%	10.0%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	32.3%	64.2%	4.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	21.8%	11.9%	3.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	0.1%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	26.5%	18.9%	3.3%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	14.7%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	29.1%	19.6%	2.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	22.2%	19.0%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	15.4%	22.3%	1.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	13.2%	17.7%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	12.6%	19.7%	0.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	9.6%	20.4%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	9.8%	21.9%	0.7%	0.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	12.7%	19.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.4%	15.5%	0.5%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	12.9%	14.8%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	16.0%	14.0%	1.1%	0.0%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	19.9%	14.5%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	20.8%	13.7%	1.8%	4.3%	9.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	24.8%	10.3%	1.6%	—	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	17.3%	10.7%	1.7%	3.7%	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.2%	11.1%	1.4%	—	5.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.4%	6.8%	1.6%	4.7%	7.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	9.2%	2.2%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗