KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

48%

46%

25%

18%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

EPSNO 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.30u · EPS −62.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	45.0%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	41.8%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	41.8%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	41.8%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	41.8%	46.7%	31.5%	49.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:44+00:00	41.8%	46.7%	31.5%	46.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	41.8%	18.0%	25.0%	46.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	41.8%	18.0%	25.0%	46.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	41.8%	18.0%	25.0%	46.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	47.7%	18.0%	25.0%	46.4%	57.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	48.5%	18.1%	25.3%	46.4%	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	82.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	81.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	80.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	31%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	78.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗