KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

WN2NO 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.45u · WN2 −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00	36.8%	32.2%	18.5%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	36.8%	32.2%	18.5%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	36.8%	32.2%	18.5%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	36.8%	32.2%	18.5%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	36.8%	24.4%	14.8%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	36.8%	24.4%	14.8%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	36.8%	24.4%	14.8%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	36.8%	24.4%	14.8%	37.6%	27.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	43.6%	24.4%	14.8%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	14.8%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	14.8%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	14.8%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	43.6%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	27.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	64.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	64.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	64.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	21.7%	37.6%	64.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	21.7%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	30.3%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:44+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	31.5%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	64.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	27.9%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	27.9%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	27.9%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	27.9%	26.1%	18.8%	37.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:45+00:00	27.9%	26.1%	18.8%	34.6%	46.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	27.9%	7.5%	13.3%	34.6%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	27.9%	7.5%	13.3%	34.6%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	27.9%	7.5%	13.3%	34.6%	46.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	33.2%	7.5%	13.3%	34.6%	46.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	34.2%	7.6%	13.7%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:13+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	13.7%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	13.7%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	13.7%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	11.1%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	11.1%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	34.2%	8.3%	11.1%	34.6%	46.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	11.1%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	11.1%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	11.1%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	11.1%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	11.1%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	19.7%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	9.9%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	12.8%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	12.8%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	24.0%	8.3%	12.8%	18.1%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	12.8%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	12.8%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	12.8%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	12.8%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	12.8%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	28.0%	8.3%	7.9%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	28.0%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	28.0%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	28.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:03+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	36.6%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	29.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	13.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	24.7%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.9%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	19.9%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	20.4%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	20.4%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	20.4%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	20.4%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	20.4%	9.1%	7.2%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	20.4%	3.9%	3.6%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	20.4%	3.9%	3.6%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	20.4%	3.9%	3.6%	26.1%	28.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	22.3%	3.9%	3.6%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	22.2%	3.9%	3.6%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:28+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	3.6%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	3.6%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	3.6%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	22.2%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	28.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	16.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:26+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	16.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	16.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	6.3%	18.4%	16.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	6.3%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:30+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	22.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:36+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	5.6%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	4.5%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	4.5%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	24.9%	4.3%	4.5%	20.0%	16.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	21.3%	4.3%	4.5%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	21.3%	4.3%	4.5%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	21.3%	4.3%	4.5%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	21.3%	4.3%	4.5%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	21.3%	4.3%	4.5%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	21.3%	7.5%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	21.3%	7.5%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	21.3%	7.5%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	18.7%	7.5%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	18.7%	8.2%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	1.6%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	2.0%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	2.0%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	2.0%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	18.7%	5.9%	2.0%	13.2%	6.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	17.5%	5.9%	2.0%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	17.5%	5.9%	2.0%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	17.5%	5.9%	2.0%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	17.5%	5.9%	2.0%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	17.5%	5.9%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	17.5%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	17.5%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	17.5%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	1.8%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	3.1%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	3.1%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	3.1%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	20.0%	5.8%	3.1%	8.6%	5.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	18.1%	5.8%	3.1%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	18.1%	5.8%	3.1%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	18.1%	5.8%	3.1%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	18.1%	5.8%	3.1%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	18.1%	6.7%	1.2%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	18.1%	6.7%	1.2%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	18.1%	6.7%	1.2%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	18.1%	6.7%	1.2%	11.1%	2.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	15.6%	7.1%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	15.6%	7.1%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	1.2%	11.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	1.2%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	1.2%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	1.2%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	1.2%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	1.2%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	0.9%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	2.6%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	2.6%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	15.6%	5.3%	2.6%	6.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:02+00:00	18.0%	5.3%	2.6%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	18.0%	5.3%	2.6%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	18.0%	5.3%	2.6%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	18.0%	5.3%	2.6%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	18.0%	5.3%	2.6%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	18.0%	7.4%	1.7%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	18.0%	7.4%	1.7%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	18.0%	7.4%	1.7%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	11.2%	7.4%	1.7%	11.8%	4.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	11.1%	7.4%	1.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	1.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	1.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	1.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	0.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	0.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	11.1%	6.1%	0.7%	11.8%	5.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.7%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	11.6%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	17.3%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	17.3%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	17.3%	6.1%	0.9%	3.8%	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	79.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗