KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

WN2NO 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.45u · WN2 −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	53.8%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	3.8%	16.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	45.1%	0.5%	1.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.5%	26.0%	4.9%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	20.0%	49.2%	1.9%	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	11.9%	5.7%	1.2%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	14.8%	9.7%	1.2%	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	7.0%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.1%	9.7%	0.7%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	11.2%	9.2%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.0%	11.0%	0.5%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	5.6%	8.1%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	5.1%	9.0%	0.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.5%	9.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.5%	9.8%	0.1%	0.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.7%	8.3%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.0%	5.9%	0.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	5.4%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.7%	4.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.4%	4.8%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.5%	4.3%	0.3%	0.9%	2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.2%	2.8%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.3%	2.8%	0.3%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	2.7%	0.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.0%	1.3%	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.8%	0.3%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	79.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	78.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗