KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

EPSNO 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:32:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:19+00:00	8.0%	2.7%	2.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	8.0%	2.7%	2.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	8.0%	2.7%	2.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	8.0%	2.7%	2.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	11.0%	0.9%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	1.2%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	11.0%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	11.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	2.3%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	2.3%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	5.7%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:44+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	41.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	17.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	17.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	17.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	10.1%	17.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:45+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	9.5%	17.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	82.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	82.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	80.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	81.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗