KMEM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

EPSNO 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.45u · EPS −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	19.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.9%	0.0%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.9%	4.1%	0.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	12.2%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	82.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	82.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	80.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	81.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗