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KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
92%
WN2
92%
HRES
89%
EPS
89%
ICON
78%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 84.8¢Risks 42.40u
VS
ICONNO 15.2¢Risks 7.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.60u · ICON −7.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS HRES: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 89.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:22+00:0090.5%82.5%77.1%76.0%80.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0090.5%82.5%77.1%76.0%80.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0090.5%82.5%93.1%76.0%80.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0090.5%82.5%93.1%76.0%80.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0090.5%82.5%93.1%76.0%80.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0091.9%82.5%93.1%76.0%77.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0091.9%82.5%93.1%76.0%77.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0091.9%82.5%93.1%76.0%77.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:0091.9%82.5%93.1%76.0%77.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:0091.9%89.2%91.5%89.2%77.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0091.9%89.2%91.5%89.2%77.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0091.9%89.2%91.5%89.2%77.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0091.9%89.2%91.5%89.2%77.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single92%82.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%80.5°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES89%81.1°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble89%80.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON78%79.2°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend75%78.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%77.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗