KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

92%

89%

89%

78%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.9¢Risks 42.45u

ICONNO 15.1¢Risks 7.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.55u · ICON −7.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	62.7%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	35.5%	59.4%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	74.3%	82.0%	8.7%	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	74.6%	68.3%	40.6%	—	72.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	81.1%	69.7%	40.2%	—	70.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	78.8%	71.2%	20.1%	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	72.1%	75.5%	30.8%	—	72.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	56.0%	71.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	69.3%	75.2%	26.2%	—	70.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	71.3%	79.8%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	74.1%	79.7%	25.9%	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	69.1%	79.7%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	79.7%	21.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	75.9%	83.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	64.1%	80.3%	29.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	70.2%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	78.7%	83.8%	33.1%	—	68.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	79.4%	84.6%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	84.0%	85.3%	31.0%	0.1%	60.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	86.1%	82.5%	31.4%	—	68.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	88.8%	88.8%	56.2%	75.4%	81.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	90.8%	52.6%	—	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	80.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗