KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

44%

33%

26%

25%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.7¢Risks 17.35u

WN2NO 65.3¢Risks 32.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.65u · WN2 −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:53+00:00	46.8%	47.2%	34.0%	35.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	46.8%	47.2%	39.4%	35.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	46.8%	47.2%	39.4%	35.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	46.8%	47.2%	39.4%	35.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	46.8%	47.2%	39.4%	35.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00	43.9%	47.2%	39.4%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	43.9%	47.2%	39.4%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	43.9%	47.2%	39.4%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	43.9%	47.2%	39.4%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	43.9%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	43.9%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	43.9%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	43.9%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	40.5%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	40.5%	39.4%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	37.4%	44.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	29.6%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	40.5%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	43.9%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	43.9%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	43.9%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	43.9%	32.8%	25.1%	25.5%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	44%	80.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	80.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	78.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗