KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

44%

33%

26%

25%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.7¢Risks 17.35u

WN2NO 65.3¢Risks 32.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.65u · WN2 −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	43.7%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	3.0%	43.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	67.7%	46.5%	4.5%	—	47.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	47.1%	18.4%	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	46.9%	52.3%	22.2%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	40.5%	46.0%	13.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.6%	53.3%	—	—	29.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	28.6%	43.4%	6.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.3%	49.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	29.9%	47.4%	7.7%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	50.9%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.9%	42.7%	4.8%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	30.9%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	38.5%	49.0%	6.2%	—	24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	31.7%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	32.1%	44.9%	6.1%	—	16.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	37.5%	48.9%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	35.1%	51.1%	9.0%	23.8%	26.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	51.1%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	36.3%	53.5%	7.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	38.1%	51.2%	8.2%	—	21.6%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	50.0%	15.1%	11.8%	32.0%	25.6%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	48.7%	51.3%	10.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	44%	80.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	80.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	78.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	79.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗