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KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
48%
AIFS
40%
HRES
24%
WN2
17%
EPS
3%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u
VS
EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.0% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS HRES: 33.7% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00ICON: 62.6% · 2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00ICON: 62.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00ICON: 62.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00ICON: 62.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:0010-16 04:2410-16 09:4110-16 14:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:0039.0%14.4%22.1%33.7%62.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:0039.0%14.4%21.0%33.7%62.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:0039.0%14.4%21.0%33.7%62.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:0039.0%14.4%21.0%33.7%62.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:0041.2%14.4%21.0%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:0041.2%14.4%21.0%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:0041.2%14.4%21.0%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:0041.2%14.4%21.0%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:0041.2%14.4%21.0%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:0041.2%3.4%17.3%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:0041.2%3.4%17.3%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:0041.2%3.4%17.3%33.7%47.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:0040.5%3.4%17.3%24.3%47.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:0040.5%3.4%17.3%24.3%48.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
ICON48%85.2°F7.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single40%84.2°F5.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
National Blend33%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES24%80.9°F6.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%81.1°F4.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%80.5°F2.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗