KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

40%

24%

17%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	21.6%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	55.8%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.5%	19.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	40.3%	21.4%	0.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	23.2%	21.0%	5.1%	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	20.0%	23.9%	6.3%	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	14.9%	18.4%	2.9%	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.1%	23.1%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	8.0%	15.7%	0.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.6%	19.0%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	8.0%	17.2%	1.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.8%	19.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.0%	13.4%	0.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.4%	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	10.2%	15.9%	0.6%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.0%	14.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.7%	12.3%	0.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	8.3%	13.8%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	7.0%	14.3%	0.7%	3.5%	4.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	13.5%	0.0%	—	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	48%	85.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	84.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	81.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	80.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗