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KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
91%
AIFS
88%
EPS
87%
ICON
81%
HRES
79%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 85.0¢Risks 42.50u
VS
HRESNO 15.0¢Risks 7.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +7.50u · HRES −7.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 59.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 81.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:24+00:0083.2%83.3%85.3%59.5%80.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0083.2%83.3%85.3%59.5%80.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0083.2%83.3%91.5%59.5%80.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0083.2%83.3%91.5%59.5%80.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0083.2%83.3%91.5%59.5%80.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0088.0%83.3%91.5%59.5%81.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0088.0%83.3%91.5%59.5%81.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0088.0%83.3%91.5%59.5%81.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0088.0%83.3%91.5%59.5%81.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:0088.0%87.2%91.0%79.0%81.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0088.0%87.2%91.0%79.0%81.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0088.0%87.2%91.0%79.0%81.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0088.0%87.2%91.0%79.0%81.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0088.0%87.2%91.0%79.0%81.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 291%82.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%82.5°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble87%80.7°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON81%81.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES79%81.1°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%78.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend44%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗