KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

88%

87%

81%

79%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.0¢Risks 42.50u

HRESNO 15.0¢Risks 7.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +7.50u · HRES −7.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	39.0%	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	38.4%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	20.8%	70.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	73.7%	80.1%	31.7%	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	70.3%	83.0%	37.1%	—	59.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	53.8%	76.1%	22.2%	—	53.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	84.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	67.7%	82.1%	28.1%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	4.1%	86.1%	—	—	50.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	69.2%	80.5%	21.3%	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	46.6%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	75.2%	82.8%	30.7%	—	63.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	75.0%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	71.0%	82.8%	28.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	81.0%	88.2%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	75.3%	87.9%	37.6%	66.1%	67.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	87.6%	—	—	52.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	82.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	80.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	81.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	81.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗