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KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
74%
ICON
72%
EPS
63%
AIFS
59%
HRES
56%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 65.2¢Risks 32.62u
VS
HRESNO 34.8¢Risks 17.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.38u · HRES −17.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00AIFS Single: 58.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.1% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS HRES: 56.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:38+00:0055.6%64.0%53.9%51.4%69.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:0055.6%64.0%59.6%51.4%69.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0055.6%64.0%59.6%51.4%69.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0055.6%64.0%59.6%51.4%69.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:0068.4%64.0%59.6%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0068.4%64.0%59.6%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0068.4%64.0%59.6%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0068.4%64.0%59.6%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:0068.4%64.0%59.6%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:0068.4%62.6%74.0%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:0068.4%62.6%74.0%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0068.4%62.6%74.0%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:0058.6%62.6%74.0%56.4%71.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0058.6%62.6%74.1%56.4%71.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend75%81.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 274%81.9°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON72%82.3°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%80.4°F2.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single59%80.5°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES56%80.3°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗