KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

72%

63%

59%

56%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.2¢Risks 32.62u

HRESNO 34.8¢Risks 17.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.38u · HRES −17.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	26.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	12.4%	57.4%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	61.1%	68.9%	20.4%	—	65.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	56.6%	72.2%	24.3%	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	38.7%	62.7%	12.5%	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	73.4%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	52.4%	69.8%	16.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	1.6%	75.0%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	53.3%	67.0%	11.2%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	30.3%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	59.6%	69.3%	17.2%	—	46.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	58.9%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	53.7%	68.6%	15.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	65.7%	76.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	57.7%	75.3%	21.0%	47.1%	48.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	74.3%	—	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	81.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	82.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	80.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗