KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

24%

18%

15%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.9¢Risks 18.90u

EPSNO 81.1¢Risks 81.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.10u · EPS −81.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:37+00:00	39.0%	10.4%	34.0%	38.4%	50.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	39.0%	10.4%	29.8%	38.4%	50.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	39.0%	10.4%	29.8%	38.4%	50.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	39.0%	10.4%	29.8%	38.4%	50.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	29.8%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	29.8%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	29.8%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	29.8%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	29.8%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	26.5%	8.8%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	26.5%	8.8%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	26.5%	8.8%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	26.5%	8.8%	20.2%	27.0%	42.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	26.5%	8.9%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	20.2%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	22.7%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	22.7%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	22.7%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	26.5%	7.5%	22.7%	26.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	18.7%	7.5%	22.7%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	18.7%	7.5%	22.7%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	18.7%	7.5%	22.7%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	18.7%	7.5%	22.7%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	18.7%	8.1%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	18.7%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	18.7%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	18.7%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	23.5%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	23.5%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	23.5%	8.0%	15.3%	17.8%	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	81.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗