KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

24%

18%

15%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.9¢Risks 18.90u

EPSNO 81.1¢Risks 81.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.10u · EPS −81.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	5.5%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	1.5%	20.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	21.9%	28.6%	3.0%	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	17.5%	30.4%	3.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.6%	20.5%	1.1%	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	29.2%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	12.7%	24.8%	1.5%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.0%	29.0%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	12.0%	20.7%	0.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.6%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	14.1%	20.8%	1.2%	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	13.0%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	9.8%	18.4%	0.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.4%	23.8%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	10.2%	21.8%	1.2%	6.2%	6.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	19.7%	—	—	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	81.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	81.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	79.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	80.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	81.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗