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KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
EPS
94%
AIFS
90%
ICON
88%
HRES
84%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 89.5¢Risks 44.77u
VS
HRESNO 10.5¢Risks 5.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.23u · HRES −5.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 87.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:0087.2%94.4%88.8%76.6%78.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0087.2%94.4%88.8%76.6%78.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0087.2%94.4%94.6%76.6%78.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0087.2%94.4%94.6%76.6%78.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0087.2%94.4%94.6%76.6%78.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0089.7%94.4%94.6%76.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0089.7%94.4%94.6%76.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0089.7%94.4%94.6%76.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0089.7%94.4%94.6%76.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:0089.7%94.4%95.5%83.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0089.7%94.4%95.5%83.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0089.7%94.4%95.5%83.6%87.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0089.7%94.4%95.5%83.6%87.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%82.8°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%80.8°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single90%82.3°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON88%82.2°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES84%81.4°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend59%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗