KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

90%

88%

84%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.6¢Risks 44.80u

HRESNO 10.4¢Risks 5.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.20u · HRES −5.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	74.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	91.2%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	13.9%	87.2%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	63.8%	86.7%	16.6%	—	65.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	80.1%	84.8%	65.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	69.7%	81.6%	43.2%	—	59.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	72.6%	75.8%	50.8%	—	69.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	13.9%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	67.0%	79.9%	45.0%	—	60.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	71.2%	80.5%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	81.0%	82.2%	43.0%	61.3%	73.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	82.8%	—	—	68.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	82.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	80.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	82.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	81.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗