KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

39%

34%

19%

15%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

EPSNO 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.05u · EPS −69.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	58.4%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	1.2%	48.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	18.9%	45.1%	1.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	33.0%	39.9%	18.9%	—	19.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	20.5%	33.0%	6.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	21.2%	24.2%	8.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	0.6%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	15.2%	26.5%	5.6%	—	11.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	17.3%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	25.5%	26.9%	4.3%	10.5%	17.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	26.4%	—	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	47%	82.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	81.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	77.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	80.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗