KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

31%

30%

20%

11%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

EPSNO 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.90u · EPS −73.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.4%	34.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	10.9%	31.7%	0.5%	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	21.0%	26.6%	10.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	11.4%	20.5%	2.9%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	11.5%	13.6%	3.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.2%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	7.4%	14.8%	2.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.5%	14.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	13.6%	14.6%	1.6%	4.5%	8.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	14.0%	—	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	83.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	82.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	82.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	80.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	80.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗