KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

38%

32%

32%

12%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 29.3¢Risks 29.35u

HRESNO 70.7¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.65u · HRES −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	48.2%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	3.9%	43.3%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	25.7%	36.9%	2.7%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	7.9%	27.2%	5.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	9.3%	17.9%	2.8%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	15.9%	24.2%	5.9%	21.8%	19.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	16.3%	—	—	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	81.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	80.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	32%	78.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗