KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

35%

29%

25%

17%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.7¢Risks 13.33u

EPSNO 73.4¢Risks 36.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.68u · EPS −36.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:41+00:00	37.7%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	37.7%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	37.7%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	37.7%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	43.1%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	43.1%	31.4%	35.5%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	43.1%	26.2%	35.5%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	43.1%	26.2%	35.5%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	43.1%	26.2%	33.3%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:23+00:00	43.1%	26.2%	33.3%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	43.1%	26.2%	33.3%	27.8%	24.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	36.4%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	41.7%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	41.7%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	41.7%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	41.7%	26.2%	33.3%	6.6%	49.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:27+00:00	39.1%	21.1%	30.4%	9.6%	27.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	39.1%	21.1%	30.4%	9.6%	27.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	39.1%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	27.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	39.1%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	27.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	39.1%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	27.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	36.5%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	29.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	36.5%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	29.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	36.5%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	29.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	36.5%	21.1%	34.2%	9.6%	29.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	36.5%	16.8%	34.9%	25.0%	29.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	36.5%	16.8%	34.9%	25.0%	29.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	36.5%	16.8%	34.9%	25.0%	29.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	36.5%	16.8%	34.9%	25.0%	29.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	36.5%	16.8%	34.8%	25.0%	29.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	36%	80.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	79.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	80.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗