KMEM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

35%

29%

25%

17%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.7¢Risks 13.33u

EPSNO 73.4¢Risks 36.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.68u · EPS −36.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	36.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	2.7%	36.7%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	20.4%	30.5%	1.8%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	5.5%	21.5%	3.5%	—	16.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	6.5%	13.4%	1.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.5%	18.4%	3.9%	16.4%	14.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	13.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	36%	80.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	80.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	79.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	80.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗