KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

38%

36%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

HRESNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.20u · HRES −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	44.5%	13.7%	39.2%	15.7%	10.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	44.5%	13.7%	39.2%	15.7%	10.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	44.5%	13.7%	39.2%	15.7%	10.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	41.7%	13.7%	39.2%	15.7%	10.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	41.7%	13.7%	39.2%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	39.2%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	39.2%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	39.2%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	30.5%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	30.5%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	41.7%	11.8%	30.5%	15.6%	10.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	30.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	30.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	30.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	30.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	30.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	30.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	37.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	37.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	37.7%	11.8%	35.5%	7.9%	43.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	44%	80.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	80.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	80.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	78.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗