KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

38%

36%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

HRESNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.20u · HRES −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	30.2%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.2%	16.3%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	13.7%	9.6%	0.8%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	14.8%	28.5%	4.4%	14.4%	16.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	28.1%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	44%	80.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	80.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	80.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	78.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	73.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗