KMIA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

35%

30%

27%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

ICONNO 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.10u · ICON −76.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:40+00:00	35.5%	23.4%	29.7%	24.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	35.5%	23.4%	29.7%	24.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	35.5%	23.4%	23.8%	24.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	35.5%	23.4%	23.8%	24.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	35.5%	23.4%	23.8%	24.4%	28.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:10+00:00	36.6%	23.4%	23.8%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	36.6%	23.4%	23.8%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	36.6%	23.4%	23.8%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	36.6%	23.4%	23.8%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	36.6%	23.4%	23.8%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	36.6%	23.1%	27.1%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	36.6%	23.1%	27.1%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	36.6%	23.1%	27.1%	16.5%	14.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	27.0%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	27.0%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	27.0%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	27.0%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	28.1%	16.5%	14.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	39.4%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	38.5%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	14.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	38.1%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	11.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	38.1%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	11.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	38.1%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	11.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	38.1%	23.1%	32.6%	20.3%	11.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	38.1%	23.1%	32.6%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	38.1%	27.4%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	33.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	30.4%	32.8%	11.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	36.6%	32.8%	11.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	36.6%	32.8%	11.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	38.1%	26.9%	36.6%	32.8%	11.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	36.6%	28.9%	7.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	36.6%	28.9%	7.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	36.6%	28.9%	7.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	36.6%	28.9%	7.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	36.6%	28.9%	7.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	40.0%	26.9%	35.3%	29.5%	7.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3481
AIFS Single	40%	89.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1600
WeatherNext 2	35%	89.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1246
National Blend	33%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	30%	88.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0870
IFS Ensemble	27%	89.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0724
ICON	8%	85.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261015-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗