KMIA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 91°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

35%

30%

27%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.9¢Risks 23.90u

ICONNO 76.1¢Risks 76.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.10u · ICON −76.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	39.5%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	7.5%	31.8%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	24.6%	26.9%	9.6%	—	21.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	33.7%	33.0%	22.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	20.0%	29.6%	23.9%	—	21.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	30.1%	30.1%	20.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	3.6%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	16.8%	31.5%	10.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	28.1%	41.5%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	27.7%	43.0%	10.5%	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	24.9%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	16.6%	42.7%	7.9%	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	19.0%	47.2%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	21.0%	44.2%	18.3%	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	27.4%	42.0%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	21.9%	43.9%	19.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	21.3%	41.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	44.5%	19.0%	2.8%	9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	13.5%	43.3%	0.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	15.3%	44.2%	31.0%	1.4%	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.0%	44.0%	18.3%	—	8.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	16.6%	43.8%	28.7%	38.9%	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	15.0%	42.3%	26.9%	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.1%	43.3%	24.0%	31.9%	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	13.9%	39.0%	22.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	13.8%	33.1%	28.0%	33.1%	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.2%	38.1%	23.6%	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	4.4%	51.6%	31.7%	23.8%	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.0%	56.6%	35.5%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3481
AIFS Single	40%	89.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1600
WeatherNext 2	35%	89.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1246
National Blend	33%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	30%	88.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0870
IFS Ensemble	27%	89.3°F	1.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0724
ICON	8%	85.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261015-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗