KMIA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

42%

37%

20%

16%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.0¢Risks 32.05u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 67.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.95u · ICON −67.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	24.9%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	18.1%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	47.4%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	20.3%	60.0%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	34.9%	24.1%	28.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	28.5%	29.7%	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	36.5%	42.4%	23.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	32.3%	40.5%	19.5%	—	21.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	15.3%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	26.5%	45.0%	32.2%	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	26.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.4%	43.0%	20.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	20.9%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	29.7%	54.6%	36.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	36.1%	57.5%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	39.4%	66.1%	57.7%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	35.3%	72.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	36.9%	79.5%	58.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	24.5%	20.5%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	22.1%	18.3%	55.5%	7.7%	15.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	38.9%	21.4%	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	12.1%	27.0%	55.8%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	16.0%	45.2%	28.3%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	15.1%	27.6%	65.8%	45.0%	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	48.7%	38.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	23.0%	60.6%	48.7%	7.9%	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	22.1%	88.9%	22.1%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	28.0%	89.2%	18.2%	22.2%	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	32.5%	74.0%	36.6%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	48.4%	81.9%	29.0%	30.3%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	83.0%	6.8%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS Ensemble	48%	88.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2704
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3091
AIFS Single	42%	87.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3364
WeatherNext 2	37%	87.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4020
IFS HRES	20%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6368
ICON	16%	85.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7039

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261017-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗