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KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
WN2
75%
AIFS
65%
ICON
62%
HRES
52%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u
VS
HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.75u · HRES −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 67.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS HRES: 52.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 11:3210-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:31+00:0062.5%97.1%65.1%67.8%48.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0062.5%97.1%63.9%67.8%48.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0062.5%97.1%63.9%67.8%48.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0062.5%97.1%63.9%67.8%48.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:0064.8%97.1%63.9%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0064.8%97.1%63.9%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0064.8%97.1%63.9%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0064.8%97.1%63.9%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0064.8%97.1%63.9%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0064.8%96.4%73.2%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0064.8%96.4%73.2%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0064.8%96.4%73.2%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0066.7%96.4%73.2%50.0%56.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0066.7%96.4%73.2%50.0%56.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:0064.8%96.4%78.5%52.1%62.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:0064.8%96.4%75.4%52.1%62.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:0064.8%96.4%75.4%52.1%62.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:0064.8%96.4%75.4%52.1%62.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:0064.8%96.4%75.4%52.1%62.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%85.1°F2.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%83.5°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend75%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single65%83.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON62%82.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS HRES52%81.7°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗