KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

75%

65%

62%

52%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

HRESNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +25.75u · HRES −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	59.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	91.0%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	57.0%	31.1%	60.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	69.6%	63.6%	47.1%	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	67.7%	61.3%	49.2%	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	53.2%	61.8%	55.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	53.3%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	49.2%	86.7%	45.0%	—	52.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	49.1%	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	57.0%	71.6%	75.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	54.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	45.4%	49.1%	78.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	50.9%	55.7%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	51.0%	51.0%	56.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	44.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	66.0%	43.9%	63.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	61.5%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	72.7%	39.2%	40.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	56.7%	43.3%	14.8%	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	52.3%	44.2%	37.4%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	65.3%	51.2%	44.0%	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	72.4%	46.3%	26.6%	51.2%	43.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	78.1%	37.3%	55.1%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	79.0%	48.7%	56.7%	6.1%	38.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	79.9%	70.0%	44.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	74.4%	52.9%	40.0%	6.8%	48.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	67.5%	71.5%	47.0%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	65.4%	88.3%	79.7%	20.3%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	61.4%	89.3%	80.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	85.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	83.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	82.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗