KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

28%

26%

15%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 19.2¢Risks 19.25u

EPSNO 80.8¢Risks 80.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.75u · EPS −80.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	35.2%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	6.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	47.4%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	63.3%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.2%	62.4%	33.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	24.3%	29.7%	45.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	25.8%	31.6%	43.2%	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	39.0%	30.9%	36.7%	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	38.7%	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	42.5%	9.3%	46.7%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	42.4%	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	34.6%	21.4%	17.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	36.8%	25.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	45.4%	41.8%	15.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	39.7%	35.2%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	39.4%	39.4%	33.9%	—	40.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	46.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	25.1%	45.9%	27.6%	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	28.8%	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	19.0%	50.0%	48.9%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	32.6%	45.5%	77.7%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	36.3%	44.2%	51.2%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	24.4%	37.0%	44.0%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	18.2%	41.3%	62.3%	36.5%	43.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	13.5%	50.0%	32.5%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	12.7%	38.1%	30.7%	88.7%	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	11.8%	19.1%	41.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	15.4%	33.1%	45.7%	87.0%	37.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	20.2%	17.2%	38.1%	—	38.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	21.4%	5.7%	11.0%	66.8%	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	24.1%	4.9%	9.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	37%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	82.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	24%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	83.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	85.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗