KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

74%

67%

61%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

HRESNO 21.7¢Risks 21.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.65u · HRES −21.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	74.9%	62.6%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	62.6%	77.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	62.6%	77.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	62.6%	77.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	62.6%	77.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	71.4%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	76.6%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	70.7%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	84.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	73.6%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	73.6%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	73.6%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	73.6%	88.9%	82.0%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	73.6%	90.5%	82.1%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	73.6%	90.5%	82.1%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	73.6%	90.5%	82.1%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	73.6%	90.5%	82.1%	61.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	82.1%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	82.1%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	82.1%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	82.1%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	75.1%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	67.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	72.4%	63.1%	69.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	72.4%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	73.6%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:32+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	75.3%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	85.0%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	85.0%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	74.4%	90.4%	85.0%	58.0%	69.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	74.6%	90.4%	85.0%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	74.6%	90.4%	85.0%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	74.6%	90.4%	85.0%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	74.6%	90.4%	85.0%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	74.6%	90.4%	85.0%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	74.6%	96.1%	87.7%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	74.6%	96.1%	87.7%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	74.6%	96.1%	87.7%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	73.9%	96.1%	87.7%	60.6%	67.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	73.9%	96.1%	87.7%	60.6%	67.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	86.5°F	1.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	87.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	86.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	67%	85.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	84.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗