KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

69%

63%

37%

27%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.45u · ICON −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:43+00:00	46.5%	86.8%	52.4%	31.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	46.5%	86.8%	52.4%	31.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	46.5%	86.8%	49.2%	31.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	46.5%	86.8%	49.2%	31.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	46.5%	86.8%	49.2%	31.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	49.2%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	49.2%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	49.2%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	49.2%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	44.0%	86.8%	49.2%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	44.0%	57.0%	48.3%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	44.0%	57.0%	48.3%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	44.0%	57.0%	48.3%	39.2%	52.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	40.3%	57.0%	48.3%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	40.3%	57.0%	48.3%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	48.3%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	48.3%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	40.3%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	52.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	69.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	69.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	69.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	47.4%	39.2%	69.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	45.5%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	69.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	42.0%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	45.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	42.0%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	45.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	42.0%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	45.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	42.0%	54.7%	45.7%	33.5%	45.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	42.0%	54.7%	45.7%	35.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	42.0%	69.1%	54.8%	35.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	42.0%	69.1%	54.8%	35.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	42.0%	69.1%	54.8%	35.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	54.8%	35.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	54.8%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	54.8%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	54.8%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	54.8%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	52.4%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	51.9%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	55.6%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	54.8%	67.2%	56.8%	35.1%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	56.8%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	56.8%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	56.8%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	56.8%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	56.8%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	52.6%	67.2%	55.3%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	52.6%	56.3%	55.3%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	52.6%	56.3%	55.3%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	55.2%	56.3%	55.3%	46.8%	63.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	55.2%	56.3%	55.3%	46.8%	62.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	55.2%	54.4%	55.3%	46.8%	62.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	69.7%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	69.7%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	69.7%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	68.6%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	68.6%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	68.6%	41.3%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	68.6%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	68.6%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	68.6%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	68.6%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	68.6%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	56.8%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	65.1%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	66.3%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	66.3%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	66.3%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	55.9%	72.9%	66.3%	39.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	59.0%	72.9%	66.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	59.0%	72.9%	66.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	59.0%	72.9%	66.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	59.0%	72.9%	66.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	59.0%	72.9%	66.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	59.0%	70.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	59.0%	70.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	59.0%	70.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	56.1%	70.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	56.1%	70.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	74.3%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	68.5%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	68.5%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	68.5%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	56.1%	69.1%	68.5%	40.4%	35.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	68.5%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	68.5%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	68.5%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	68.5%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	60.0%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	72.0%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	74.3%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	74.3%	37.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	62.9%	69.1%	74.3%	37.3%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	87.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	86.5°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	86.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	84.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	83.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗