KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

69%

63%

37%

27%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.45u · ICON −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	7.4%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	35.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	25.4%	70.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	33.0%	34.3%	9.6%	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.5%	54.4%	33.0%	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	49.2%	56.1%	30.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	26.1%	61.8%	38.2%	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	13.0%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	36.9%	23.8%	21.9%	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	31.9%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	49.1%	29.1%	24.8%	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	38.5%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	60.9%	31.4%	37.3%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	40.6%	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	41.3%	53.9%	15.9%	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	46.0%	43.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	42.8%	24.3%	31.2%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	53.2%	39.5%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	48.9%	37.1%	20.6%	3.3%	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	47.8%	25.8%	2.4%	—	20.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	45.4%	39.6%	32.0%	17.5%	21.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	51.2%	48.8%	30.4%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	50.0%	50.0%	25.6%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	42.3%	43.6%	33.7%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	38.1%	58.0%	28.4%	22.0%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	37.7%	33.8%	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	31.8%	48.5%	34.5%	28.0%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	29.8%	56.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	87.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	86.5°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	86.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	84.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	27%	83.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗