KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

43%

31%

19%

12%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.2¢Risks 30.20u

ICONNO 69.8¢Risks 69.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +69.80u · ICON −69.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	15.9%	57.4%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	21.4%	22.4%	4.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	17.5%	39.9%	21.0%	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	34.4%	40.9%	18.9%	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	14.9%	46.0%	24.2%	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	6.2%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	22.5%	12.9%	11.6%	—	12.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	18.4%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	32.2%	16.1%	13.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	22.9%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	42.7%	17.2%	21.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	23.8%	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	24.0%	34.8%	6.8%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	27.4%	24.9%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	24.3%	11.3%	15.7%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	32.6%	21.3%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	28.2%	19.0%	8.5%	0.9%	9.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	26.7%	11.2%	0.5%	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	24.2%	19.9%	14.7%	6.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	28.3%	26.3%	13.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	26.6%	26.6%	10.0%	0.0%	6.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	20.0%	20.9%	14.3%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	16.5%	31.9%	10.7%	7.4%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	15.6%	13.2%	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.5%	22.2%	13.0%	9.5%	4.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.9%	27.2%	11.2%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.0%	29.0%	11.0%	10.2%	3.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.0%	25.4%	5.3%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	49%	87.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	86.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	86.5°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	84.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	83.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗