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KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
25%
WN2
24%
HRES
8%
EPS
7%
ICON
4%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 14.3¢Risks 14.35u
VS
ICONNO 85.7¢Risks 85.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.65u · ICON −85.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-11 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0012.0%————8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0030.1%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0032.5%————23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0014.9%————21.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:002.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:008.9%————25.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0010.8%————22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0016.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0027.4%————23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0032.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0025.2%————27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0014.6%————22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0033.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0032.0%————23.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0015.0%————22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:008.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:009.3%————19.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.5%————16.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.6%—2.0%——18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:006.5%—4.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:005.2%————13.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.6%—4.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:007.8%—15.2%——14.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—20.8%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0012.1%9.0%43.9%——12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.2%—20.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.9%12.6%13.4%2.2%—8.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.9%—10.4%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.1%9.6%26.6%12.0%—8.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.9%—22.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.1%21.6%27.0%10.3%—7.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:004.6%—32.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.4%7.5%30.9%13.6%—8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:005.5%2.6%3.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:006.1%12.0%6.1%5.3%—6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:005.4%9.2%6.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.5%18.4%7.7%5.9%—4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.5%11.6%10.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.3%25.9%7.9%10.6%—4.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.6%11.8%7.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.8%11.6%19.0%2.4%—3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.5%13.5%11.9%——4.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.8%11.3%4.2%6.4%—3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:002.8%16.3%9.2%——3.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.3%13.1%7.7%2.8%0.2%3.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.9%11.8%3.8%0.1%—2.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.8%10.0%7.6%5.1%1.8%2.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.3%11.9%10.8%4.3%—1.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.3%10.6%10.6%2.8%0.0%1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.8%6.8%7.2%4.3%—1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.0%5.0%12.7%2.8%1.7%1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.0%4.3%3.5%1.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.7%2.7%6.8%3.2%2.1%0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—2.0%8.6%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single25%86.8°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%87.4°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES8%84.3°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%86.5°F2.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast6%86.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON4%83.3°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend2%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗