KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.1¢Risks 4.03u

EPSNO 92.0¢Risks 45.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.98u · EPS −45.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	8.3%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	8.3%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	8.3%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	8.3%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	8.3%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	7.0%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	7.0%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	12.5%	0.3%	7.0%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	11.2%	0.3%	7.0%	17.9%	8.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	7.0%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	7.0%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	7.0%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	17.9%	8.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	11.1%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	6.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	11.5%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	5.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	4.3%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.5%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.5%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.5%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.5%	18.9%	11.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	3.5%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	3.5%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	3.5%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	3.5%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	11.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	10.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	10.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	10.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	6.9%	15.7%	10.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	6.9%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:32+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	5.8%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	2.7%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	2.7%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	2.7%	19.1%	10.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	9.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	9.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	9.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	9.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	9.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	84.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	10%	85.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	86.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	87.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.9°F	1.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗