KMIA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.1¢Risks 4.03u

EPSNO 92.0¢Risks 45.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.98u · EPS −45.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	75.3%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	33.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	42.6%	8.5%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	33.0%	31.7%	66.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	36.4%	15.2%	31.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	17.4%	13.4%	32.3%	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	35.9%	9.7%	24.2%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	54.1%	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	23.8%	36.9%	39.3%	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	27.4%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	14.1%	29.1%	33.8%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	20.2%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	7.6%	25.1%	20.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	17.1%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	15.9%	9.4%	41.3%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.4%	14.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	13.4%	27.6%	21.2%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	8.0%	14.4%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	9.0%	14.9%	29.2%	67.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	8.7%	22.3%	71.4%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	9.0%	11.6%	16.0%	30.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	6.2%	7.0%	16.0%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	5.9%	5.9%	18.2%	96.3%	24.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	7.7%	7.2%	11.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	8.4%	3.0%	13.4%	18.2%	21.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	7.6%	9.2%	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	8.9%	3.7%	7.8%	10.8%	20.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	8.6%	2.0%	7.5%	—	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	84.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	10%	85.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	86.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	87.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.9°F	1.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261019-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗