KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

67%

54%

51%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.4¢Risks 70.40u

ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 29.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.60u · ICON −29.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:32+00:00	68.5%	92.9%	81.2%	40.5%	73.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	68.5%	92.9%	79.8%	40.5%	73.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	68.5%	92.9%	79.8%	40.5%	73.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	68.5%	92.9%	79.8%	40.5%	73.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	66.3%	92.9%	79.8%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	66.3%	92.9%	79.8%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	66.3%	92.9%	79.8%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	66.3%	92.9%	79.8%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	66.3%	92.9%	79.8%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	66.3%	93.9%	82.1%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	66.3%	93.9%	82.1%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	66.3%	93.9%	82.1%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	65.4%	93.9%	82.1%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	65.4%	93.3%	82.1%	49.1%	74.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	77.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	77.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	75.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	75.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	75.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	65.3%	89.7%	75.1%	46.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	75.1%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	75.1%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	75.1%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	75.1%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	66.2%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	67.1%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	67.1%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	67.1%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	67.1%	89.7%	79.9%	53.9%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	85.9°F	1.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	86.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	51%	83.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗